Building Resilience into Northern Infrastructure through Climate Tech and Digitalization

The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres refers to climate change as ‘A Code Red for Humanity’, warning about the irreversibility of the resulting damages. Having plans to cope with the impacts of climate change is necessary, but not sufficient. We also need to take actions to prevent and minimize the undesirable impacts of climate change. This is of particular importance when it comes to building and managing infrastructure in Northern regions. 

For centuries, engineers have relied on a fundamental assumption: the climate was stable and stationary. Infrastructure was designed based on historical climatic patterns, with the expectation that past conditions could help humans reliably predict the future. This belief, aka ‘stationarity’, has guided the construction of roads, railways, pipelines, and other vital infrastructure by civil engineers in modern times. But as climate change accelerates, this assumption no longer holds true.

In Northern regions, where much of the infrastructure is built on permafrost, rising global temperatures are reshaping the landscape. Permafrost, once considered a stable foundation, is thawing, undermining the structural integrity of the assets built on it. Engineers face a new reality—one where shifting temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events are creating unprecedented challenges.

The Growing Threat to Northern Infrastructure

The impacts of climate change are particularly acute in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at four times the global average. The thawing of permafrost threatens not only infrastructure but also the delicate ecosystems and communities that depend on it. Critical infrastructures—including transportation networks and energy pipelines—are especially vulnerable, with the ground beneath these structures settling unevenly due to permafrost thaw. Further, retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS), which are defined as landslides caused by the melt of ground ice in permafrost, have become more common in the Arctic. A 60-fold increase in numbers has been observed between 1984 and 2015 as more than 4000 RTS were initiated, primarily following four particularly warm summers. Slumps are common along northern rivers and lakeshores and the western Arctic coast. Infrastructure and water quality can be severely impacted by thaw slumps.

This instability poses significant risks, as engineers must now grapple with the complexities of a rapidly changing environment. Permafrost is not a uniform material; its response to climatic changes varies significantly based on soil composition, ice content, and drainage conditions. Predicting how permafrost behaves under external and environmental loads (for example, the weight of a structure, temperature change, or precipitation) is exceptionally challenging. Typically, engineers observe three stages of settlement in permafrost-built infrastructure: instant settlement, steady settlement, and accelerated settlement. The critical question is when steady settlement will tip into accelerated settlement—a signal that failure may be imminent.

Climate Tech as a Game-Changer 

Amid these challenges, the rapid advancement of technologies in artificial intelligence (AI), automation, remote sensing, big data analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT) offers hope for early warning and digital adaptive management systems that can monitor and dynamically predict infrastructure vulnerabilities to climate hazards. Among the most promising tools is the Digital Twin technology, which could fundamentally transform how infrastructure is monitored and managed in Northern regions.

Originally developed by NASA for the Apollo program, the Digital Twin technology creates a dynamic, virtual replica of a physical system. Unlike traditional models, Digital Twins are continuously updated with real-time and near-real-time data, which offer an evolving picture of how an asset is responding to environmental conditions and structural stress. For the infrastructure built on permafrost, this means that engineers can track changes in the ground—such as temperature fluctuations and moisture levels—over time and predict how these changes might impact the stability of a road, pipeline, or building.

A key distinction of the Digital Twin technology is its specificity. Each Twin is created for a particular asset, reflecting the unique characteristics of that site. This level of precision is essential in permafrost regions, where site conditions can vary dramatically, even over short distances. Digital Twins offer real-time adaptation by integrating data from sensors embedded in the infrastructure and its surrounding environment as well as satellite imaging to predict future performance and risks.

Predictive Power and Early Warnings 

One of the most powerful applications of Digital Twins is the ability to foresee critical transitions in infrastructure stability. For example, as permafrost thaws beneath a structure, sensors can detect subtle changes in temperature, moisture, and load-bearing capacity. These data points feed into the Digital Twin, which uses advanced geomechanical algorithms to predict when the steady settlement of the ground will accelerate—triggering early warnings that can prompt preventive measures before disaster strikes.

The Digital Twin technology represents more than just a tool for monitoring infrastructure. This technology marks a fundamental shift in how we design and manage critical systems in the face of climate change. This predictive capability offers a significant advantage over traditional approaches, which often rely on periodic inspections and outdated data. With Digital Twins, stakeholders are not just reacting to failures; they are anticipating them. This can be a breakthrough to significantly enhance proactive infrastructure management. This shift from reactive to adaptive strategies is essential in an era where climate conditions are evolving faster than ever before.

In Northern regions, where the impacts of global warming are being felt acutely, Digital Twins enable engineers to simulate future climate scenarios and test how different assets might respond. This allows for more informed decision-making as engineers can plan for the most probable climate risks and develop contingency strategies accordingly.

Beyond immediate risks, Digital Twins support long-term resilience planning. By modeling the potential impacts of extreme weather events and gradual climatic shifts, engineers can adjust maintenance schedules, fortify vulnerable sections of infrastructure, and implement adaptive designs that can better withstand future conditions.

The Future of Infrastructure in a Warming World

The stakes for Northern infrastructure are high. In Canada alone, the financial costs of permafrost thaw-related damage could reach billions of dollars annually by the end of the century. But the risks extend far beyond monetary losses. Failing infrastructure threatens the livelihoods of communities that rely on these systems, as well as the broader economies they support.

The Digital Twin technology offers a reliable, data-driven approach to managing these risks. By combining real-time sensor data with physics-based geomechanical models, Digital Twins can predict the behavior of infrastructure under different climate conditions and provide insights that help prevent failures before they occur. These insights can also inform broader strategies for mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of infrastructure damage in Northern territories.

As this technology continues to evolve, the potential application areas will only expand. Advancements in big data analytics, AI, machine learning, the IoT, and Earth observation systems will enhance the accuracy and capabilities of Digital Twins and enable even more precise predictions. This is especially important for managing the lagged response of permafrost to climate change, where the ground’s thermal conditions often trail behind the current climate.

Looking Ahead: A Path to Resilience

In the face of rapid climate change, the need for innovative solutions to safeguard northern infrastructure has never been more urgent. The Digital Twin technology is poised to play a central role in this effort and offers engineers and stakeholders the tools they need to anticipate, adapt, and respond to the challenges posed by permafrost thaw and other climate-related risks.

By embracing this cutting-edge technology, we can move towards a future where infrastructure is not only protected from climate risks but also is resilient and sustainable in the long term. In doing so, we can ensure that the communities and economies that depend on these critical systems continue to thrive, even as the world around them changes.